House Price Spy Blog

The average property price for England and Scotland rose by £6k in the last month whereas the average for Wales rose by just £2k. Demand for property has risen significantly and asking prices are also on the rise, if you are to enter the property market this could be the time to do it! The Bank Of Englands new property specialist Professor David Miles seems to think that we are now at the bottom of the slump and that the rebound curve should be sharp (meaning we will not spend more than a year getting back to where we were!)

Renting property is one of the boom businesses of recent times and is no longer the preserve of students and those on low earnings, with many assessing their lifestyles rather than their earning potential renting has seen a steep rise. Whether rented property will still have a big chunk of the UK property market will remain to be seen after the market returns to pre-2008 figures. At the moment it is seen as a good way to hold onto the value of the property while the market recovers. Will we still want to rent once mortgages are easier to get and the market has more bounce?

Before WW2 over 70% of the UK population rented and now almost 65% of the population has ownership.

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House prices fluctuate, but there are more important indicators of how the economy is doing. If property prices go down, people dont spend, factories dont have the work and lay off staff. Unemployment rises, people sell their homes (or indeed have them repossesed) so prices fall again. The spiral continues, ever downward…

Unemployment is at a 12 year High, standing at 2.2 million and rising, anyone in this category will have bigger problems than whether their house price has dropped by 10%. The actual predictions are that the figures on people unemployed in the UK will rise to 10%, however the figures for countries like Spain is set to rise to twice that number.

The US has a brand spanking new President who is almost universally popular with the people, it is impossible to enter a store in the US without seeing ‘ I back Obama’ posters or stickers. We have a lame PM waiting for the end. The only question will he be outed by his party or the people. Any decisions made are sure to be overturned by the next government in 2010. Most of the predictions centre around some sort of recovery in 2010, so you have to feel that whoever is in charge at the point will benefit.

When you think of all the money you have spent during your lifetime it can be mindboggling! The amount of money it takes just to survive, but what are the top ten expenses that we need to stump up for?

Property - Mortgage or rent.

Kids - Food, repairs, education etc

Car - Purchase, running costs, petrol, repairs etc

Holidays - Flights, food/drinks etc

Insurance and pensions - Home, life etc

Electrics and electronics - Gadgets, kitchen appliances, domestic, av, IT etc

Clothing and footwear - Think for all the thousands you have spent on this during your lifetime!

Food and drink - The average person in the UK spends more on alcohol that they do on food! The average person in the UK spends more on junk food than any other place outside the US!

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The mortgages figures for April have been announced by the Council of Mortgage Lenders. The number of mortgages has risen to over 35,000 which is the highest since October 2008. This is a rise of around 16% in the Figures for March 2009.

I think we can agree that the rate with which the economy in general is contracting is decreasing…which means we are near the beginning of the end in terms of doom and gloom. All of the factors which affect us have to be balanced up rather than just the temporary value of our house, like employment levels, taxes, inflation, new businesses opening and a million other things.

The shortage in properties for sale means that prices rise, but when prices rise more people will enter the market meaning prices will then drop as there are more properties on the market and supply outstrips demand. Add in the fact that the summer is the season when most of us move home and you have to take the figures with a pinch of salt!

For the last few weeks I have been seeing a mixed bag of news, are we seeing the lowest ebb of the property slump or is there a further fall to come? Will the recession really hit in 2010? Without a Mystic Meg type crystal ball its all guess work at this stage (although the smart money is on a gradual easing of the situation during the next 12 months) but what can we take from the crisis? What lessons are there to be learned?

Buyer beware! This property can damage your health! Never, ever pay more than a property than its worth. Never buy in an area you are not sure of. Dont buy a property to rent you would not live in yourself. Dont make unusual alternations to properties. Dont borrow more than you can pay back if the worst should come to pass, dont borrow as much as you can get. Do play devils advocate but dont plan for disaster!

Dont borrow money from financial instiitutions and expect them to have a global or ‘bigger picture’! Plan for change by solid investments rather than short term money makers.

Dont get carried away with the current climate, dont overstretch your finances in the name of ‘who dares wins’ and expect to be bailed out! Dont withdraw your savings from a previously solid building society at the first sign of trouble! Dont buy newspapers that preach doom and gloom to sell copies!

OK, so the last few are subjective but you get the picture. We have overextended ourselves, believed everything we were told blindly and basically and let the media drag us into the fiasco. The fact that it does not now seem as dire as once thought just says to me that the media created it in the first place, like dominoes the finance industry then house prices, then jobs all fell!

The average property prices for last month (May 2009) have seen a rise of around 2.6% which is the largest for the best part of a year. However before we get the champage on ice this may refelct the fact that summer is the busy season for moving and there is usually a rise at this time of year due to the convenience of the weather etc.

Another story in the papers is that ex MP Hazel Blears sold two of her second homes and pocketed £13,000 in capital gains tax. Now that the whole thing has come out she has pledged to pay the money back, it also turns that Gordon Brown knew all about these deals. Blears claimed her second home (under expenses) as her first home when claiming tax and ‘flipped’ them to profit from the regulations.

God bless the web, it it was not for modern information technology we would never have know. While the whole furore is getting dull to most people the gravy train seems to be over….MPs actually get £100,000s as balloon payments when they resign so not quite over yet!

Many papers are reporting that the fall in the number of properties for sale of the last year (even if numbers are picking up now!) has led to an increase in Gazumping. The demand for suitable housing now outstrips demand and this dreaded word is back! Gazumping, or reneging on an oral agreement to sell when anther buyer comes in with a higher offer. Untill you have everything in writing from your lawyers nothing is settled! Anyone who has been in the position of being told that their new home is not theirs anymore will sympathise!

Everyone has been there, the pressure is off the biggest investment of your life is all settled and overall your happy with your dream home! Whether you actually got a bargain or not the emotional investment of buying a property means that having your offer accepted is like having a load removed from your shoulders. Having to start the process over again because someone went behind your back and offered a token amount of money more can be heartbreaking and costly. The only good points are that at that point your know what you want and are ‘in the zone’ in terms of watching the market and visiting properties. Still time is money and you could be better employed than hunting for a second time…

Gazumping has always been around (except in Scotland of course) now due to the fall in actual numbers of propeties for sale it is rearing its ugly head again. Is there anything the government can do? The answer to that is no, until papers are signed by both sides nothing is concrete. However the code of practice of estate agents and lawyers who facitiate (and profit from) this practice could be changed to respect good practice rather than profit first and foremost. You would get a bad name in business if you did things like this, why would it be acceptable in personal life. However you will never change some people.

While your home is the biggest investment you make and losing a big wack of cash on that can make all your other outgoings seem like a pittance, the economy is a larger picture that has many facets one affecting another so it pays to look at the bigger picture. The average sold property prices for May 2009 were up a few percent on the previous month but more importantly other indications are also good for an economic recovery during the next year or so.

Just in time for summer the Pound is well up against both the Dollar and the Euro, if you are planning to get away your cash should go further.

Mortgage lending for new properties is up for the 4th consecutive month.

Renting property average rents have started to rise after 9 consecutive months falling.

The asking price of propeties for sale is now rising, showing confidence is growing in the the market.

Overseas investers are seeing the UK as a good steady investment and record numbers are entering the UK market.