House Price Spy Blog

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The media have been feasting on the projected cuts to be introduced in the next few years, you can hardly have turned on the TV without doom and gloom about what is going to happen to the country, but there is a much more serious influence for every household in the UK. Mortgage lending is down by 10%, and the finance industry has promised to make it much harder to get mortgages in the UK. The lessons of other countries (Germany to name one) and previous downturns have not been learnt it seems.

Rather than protecting the country from another 2007 style downturn by limiting the amount available for UK home owners, the lack of available finance is certain to see another drop in houses in the UK, rather than drawing in first time buyers and those priced out of the housing ladder the past shows that these are just the type of buyers who will be priced out of the market first, all the billions the previous government spent on first time buyers will be wasted and every home owner in the UK will see their investment suffer.

The market is set for a dip, the latest predictions are that there will be falls into 2011, if we artificially limit mortgage lending we will certainly cause a second panic.

The average property price in the UK fell for the third month in a row, with the number of properties entering the market (the word flooding has been used quite a bit) prices are being pushed downward as thousands of sellers test the market across the UK.

Buyers are reported to be described as ‘cautious’ viewing more properties than before and of course considering offering less than the list price.

One of the policy makers for the Bank of England, Andrew Sentance, stated that the BOE consider the current climate (Winter 2010) as being ‘volitile’ rather than a turndown in prices, and will not take pre-mature measures to stifle the slower than expected recovery by changing their low interest rate policy, the mortgage rate was held at 0.5% again last month.

In the news this week, 25% of buyers are late underbidding or ‘gazundering‘, buyers feeling justified in offering less now since prices have been falling in recent times. As mentioned the 21st century housing boom was partly based on the rental boom, many of whom are now selling up and these are the properties which are now flooding the market, apart from that many regular home owners are unable to wait until the next projected rise in prices in 2011. The average property price fell by around £6,000 in the UK last month and this trend is now expected to change before the end of 2010.

In the last couple of months mortgage lending has falled by over 10% and if FSA regulations come into force the number or mortgages numbers will decrease even further, sellers are adding all these conditions together and finding that the time is right to sell up if possible.

Keep in touch with what is going on in the UK property market, from national to regional down the street level with House Price Spy!!

UK property prices paused during September 2010, despite fears that government measures and the end of rental boom would impact on prices seem to be unfounded so far as averages over the whole UK hold in the last month. The only region of the UK which seems to be falling is Scotland where prices have tumbled by over 3.4% in the last 3 months.

The average 6.7% gains that the UK have seen during 2010, are not expected to increase but the increase in prices is slowing, the average house price in the UK is currently £167,423. The number or mortgages granted is falling 31,767 were granted last month which was down 10% on the previous month.

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The FSA (The Financial Services Authority) who regulate the finance industry have announced plans to limit the amount of money lent by financial institutions to the public, and in a small footnote to the publication state that they “project significant falls in house prices from the reduction in lending”. The rather promiscuous and badly regulated lending of pre-2007 is set to be replaced by over strict lending where millions of people in the UK are priced out of home owner ship, throwing the baby out with the bath water anyone? Rather just regulate the industry and prevent them from using our money to speculate for their own profit they are planning to send the industry back 25 years.

After 20% of property being wiped from the average homeowner since 2007 are we going to see the FSA/government/BOE actually plotting to send us back into the red? Billions of public money have been spent enticing first time buyers who will be the main losers here, the FSA plans will undermine everyone who owns property and, sending millions into negative equity.

Apart from that the finance and property industries will be back to square one after building up during 2009…

The average prices asked by sellers fell for the third month in a row, wiping £8,000 off the gains of 2010. Mortgage lending has reached its lowest seasonal value for ten years according to The Council of Mortgage Lenders.

More interestingly the average rent that people in the UK paying is soaring to £686 up 1.4% in the last month which is the highest for 2 years, as more and more landlords sell up the remaining ones are raising their rents as available properties become harder to find. Time to buy rather than rent? Looks like the odds are being pushed back in that direction, in past years the media was full of all sorts of stories about people renting who could afford but chose to rent for various reasons, even home owners renting other properties in their chosen areas. Looks like this trend might just be over…with more and more people struggling to get mortgages we will see more and more people priced ownership.

What will the government do to counteract this trend? The finance industry was meant to have put their house in order.

Despite a slowing down of the recovery average house prices have risen by 0.2% in the last month or so, the actual numbers of properties for sale is well up so the outlook is good. The recovery is looking to be more sustainable without the inflation that we knew in the early part of the decade.

The slight rise has reversed any losses in recent months leaving a stable and healthy market if not promising a expedient recovery during 2010 as once predicted, the glut of sales that saw a sharp rise in 2009 is now over leaving a more realistic market.

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At House Price Spy Keeping our eagle eye on property news this week its clear that something has changed, maybe not for the average buyer/seller or the average UK taxpayer but the industry is showing active signs of recovery. Despite prices actually falling the property industry namely regular estate agents and online estate agencies, whose profits have jumped by around a third in the last month.

The finance sector is also showing signs of green shoots of recovery (albeit Direct Line went bust Yesterday), with profits and funds available to lend returning to 2007 levels. So anyone who profits from the UK property market is going great guns, why are we unenthusiastic about the recovery?

Property professionals have looked after themselves while the regular buyer/seller pays the bill, as with the ‘hard times’ of the Tory government to come in the next few years we will be left to pay for over-ambition and over-expansion.

Before the 2007 slump it seemed that you could never lose money on property, now the long term view is the most reliable position. We need the government to do the same, the first year of the new government has seen them reverse a lot of plans, the merry go round of promises and apologies rolls on!