House Price Spy Blog

We all know that the market is flat and with all the cuts in jobs and public spending we are not expecting changes during 2010 or early 2011, so house prices will also be expected to stall this year. Is this really bad? For forced sellers and anyone struggling to get finance for their purchase it will, but in general the remarkable recovery of last year was not as stable as it would seem.

Smart predictions are that 2011 will be the year where the market drags itself back onto track with serious gains that will last this time, the double dip recession is not quite happening like we thought although more companies and jobs are still being lost across all sectors of the economy but this is just a hangover from the troubles of 2008 with thousands of companies hanging on for grim life in the face or dropping orders and rising charges.

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The property market in the UK has kept to a slight fall in average prices, continuing on from last month. Prices are now back at 2006 levels, rises are not expected to rise in 2010, although falls are not expected to reach the depths of 2008.

Rising countries are now far outstripping the UK for growth in the market overall, add to this the fact that many purchases are now made from outside the UK due to falling prices and you see the weakness in the market.

As mentioned, mortgage lending is actually up, the number or properties being sold rises by the month and it seems there is a sounder foundation to the market than before when many expected a quick recovery within a year. The rising number of properties being sold and the stronger market that is based on greater numbers of sales, is good for the individual home owner in the UK. A slow growth is one that wont fall back like the gains we saw late in 2009.

Low interest rates it seems are to be kept up, the BOE/government seem reticent to lose goodwill they have created and the media are predicting another few years of this concession at least. With no month to be made from selling property and none from savings and various kinds of mortgage to be banned (moving these borrowers onto other more expensive ones) we need something to keep us afloat!

The FSA have made positive moves to ban certain types of mortgages in the UK, after consultation with lenders it has discovered some worrying statistics: almost half of UK home-owners with interest only mortgages had no money to off their mortgages and where relying on value rising to close the gap. Half of mortgages approved since 2007 were self certified with no proof of earnings.

Fair enough, they are seeing a problem but 3 years too late surely! Interest only mortgages are increasingly popular and outlawing them may be the final nail in the coffin of the property industry. They are popular for many reasons, with all the cash which the government has been spending on first time buyers as one of their single mother/new parents type causes do they really want to price another chunk of the mortgage market out of the game?

I agree that proving earnings will be a good thing, making lenders a little more accountable for their own failures is important but having an interest only mortgage myself it seems that they may be throwing the baby out with the dishwater. Further restrictions have been long in coming but with the market set to be back on track in 2011 is this the time to lose around a quarter of the mortgage market?

House Price Spy is a free way to keep up on property prices in your area!

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The average property price in the UK has stalled in its rise, while never plumbing the depths expected by some who predicted up to 40% to be wiped off the value (the average was just 16%) the recovery has been put on a pause by its own success. Due to the large number of properties being put on the market in the last 6 weeks the expected price has actually fallen, despite this the market IS more stable.

The main problem with the 2009 recovery it was based on too few sales to be a reliable one in the medium term, subject to wild fluctuations from week to week. With increased sales comes confidence that gradually the market will build up to what it was rather than slipping back to 2007 levels.

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