House Price Spy Blog

As the fragile property market keeps its upward trajectory for another month, prices keep rising and precious consumer confidence is holding, there is one part of the property market which is only happy enough to get out of the system. The buy to rent market was one of the driving forces in spiraling property prices in the UK and the ‘bull market’ finance sector dealing that led to the undermining of the whole of the finance sector. With prices rising many landlords are cashing in their chips and gradually selling up.

Reluctant landlords who were hanging onto their properties while the drop in prices lasted are selling in increasing numbers, the Association of Residential Lettings Agents (ARLA) have found that almost a half of landlords in the Greater London area were reluctant or accidental landlords who struggled to sell their property, now it seems the numbers of these landlords has dropped by around a third in the last couple of months.

Is this a promising sign of continued recovery or just a further risk to the recovery with a small blip on the property radar whcih lowers prices and creates a buyers market?

Mortage approvals have risen by 3% over the last month and are up 75%+ on the same time last year. The total value of the loans granted is actually down £0.2 billion to £9.2 billions but the signs are positive that the numbers are at least moving in the right direction!

With the numbers of properties on the market rising will prices rise as consumer confidence grows of will it be a buyers market causing prices to drop? With the rental market still in its death throws, the much vaunted first time buyer boom and various assisted government employment schemes there is still a fragility to the recovery which means we will be in the same position for a couple of years to come and then the market will settle to a lower level than 2007 without the massive inflation seen in the previous 10 years.

With the finance sector returning to its old ways (bond market, 100% mortgages, fat cat bonuses) and the country still feeling the pinch this is the time for solid leadership from the Bank Of England and the government rather than worrying about elections and public opinion.

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The average price of a home has risen by around £10,000 in recent months and estate agents sales are up by around 10% from the depths of the recession. Financial institutions are divided on whether we will see a slight drop in prices before the market recovers to 2007 levels.

With the average wages being around £25,000 we are finding it harder to save for a first time deposit making new first time buyers scarcer than ever, the government was making big noises about attracting more people onto the property ladder and has allocated billions of pounds towards this end. Low asking prices, low interst rates and a fast recovering mortgage market cannot make people buy!

I notice Barrack Obama took time out of being the US president to win the Nobel Peace Prize ! Well done to him, although anyone in the US who has just lost their job, house or business will be wishing the US concentrated on what they do best (make money) rather than try to sort out the worlds problems. This is good going for Mr Obama as people usually work for a lifetime, risking life and limb for a Nobel Prize and he has won one after just a few months in the job.

The latest batch of property price figures from House Price Spy show that the recovery continues for the moment with the average house price back to the levels of a year ago. This is based on total sales of 4% ie number of sales compared to number of houses. During the times of rapid house prices this figure was up at around 7% or 8% so you can see that the recovery continues to be fragile -a sudden slump in sales could sway the average either way.

There are many people in the UK who are hanging onto the lowest interest rates in living memory rather than move home, why take all the expense and rouble when your mortgage is down to almost zero? Would the Bank Of England stimulate more growth in the property market (and therefore the finance sector) by raising the rate? Looks like the goverment/BOE are more worried about families losing their homes than getting the economy back on track.

Saying that, once the large stock of rental properties that have enjoyed these low rates see prices raise significantly they may choose to sell up and boost the market-but again this is only a temporary fix!

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The average house price in the UK rose for 6th month in a row, fueling optimism that a full scale recovery was on the cards for early 2010, driven by the low prices of the last two years plus low interest rates and prices still being forced down for products and services (apart from those related to fuel such as petrol and utilities).

The mortgage market is still recovering but the same old stories about 90% and 100% mortgages are circulating so competition must be hotting up and lenders are worrying more about getting a bigger share of the market than stabilising their investments. These deals dont go away, they just retreat a little under cover!

Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling have been more occupied this week with trying to save their jobs at the Labour conference with pledges about delaying ‘fat cat’ bonus payouts until assured results are seen. This will not attract the best to the industry but seems to keep the public happy, personally I think we can agree that the average Joe does not really care what bonuses bank bosses get when times are good-so you keep the times good rather than threaten bosses with reduced payouts! Get the best in to do the jobs and regulate what they do more tightly! Trying to claw back agreed bonuses is no way to bring life back to the market, its a soft soap those who have lost out rather than a plan for the future.