House Price Spy Blog

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As you will be aware, Alistair Darling has announced his budget for 2009 with plenty of rhetoric about helping present and prospective property owners.

Raising the upper level of tax to 50% – These sort of tax hikes have a way of not happening, the people who earn £150 (Fred the Shred? ) have a way of getting out of paying tax, this is a salve to Old Labour, but not necessarily a money maker. If it was it would boost the economy of which ever tax haven is favoured these days….Virgin Islands, Switzerland or elsewhere. The money raised if any will be swallowed by by the huge black hole which is the UK National Debt, Gordon Brown was in charge of the purse strings while the UK borrowed vast sums and will now have to pay it back during the start of recession.

Payment holidays for mortgages – These have been around for a while and loads of people signed up for them and we are still having record repossessions… Many people would rather be paying less rather having a few months out just to be in the same position.

End of tax breaks for second/holiday home owners – Those renting their second properties will lose out by average £4,000. Is this a secret way of stimulating growth in the property market? These changes will be brough in in 2010 and will effect around 20% of people with second homes.

In the last few weeks I have been to view quite a few properties, and none of them were occupied and the same story was forthcoming from the estate agents, client had rented but had decided to sell and had lower price to sell. There has been no assistance given to ‘buy to rent’ owners in the budget.

If you did not like the Budget 2009 style then hold on for 2010 when the staggering borrowing the Labour Government did on our behalf in the last 10 years comes back to bite us big time….

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The average property price for March 2009 was up by 0.9% on the previous month. The build up to the busy market time of summer will tell us if the recovery is real or just small blip before price plunge again, there are traditionally more sales in summer than any other time.

Mortgage approvals for last month numbered 37,000 but we would need to see at least 60,000 during the summer months to compensate for the downturn in the economy including rising unemployment and stalling of wage rises.

So have the recent mortage rate cuts been instrumental in this? No. Simple as that. People are saving big time on their mortgages yes but as soons as they move home they will need to re-negociate their mortgage meaning they will be paying more! These cuts in rate are good for the general economy but bad for savers and also bad for people moving houses as the amount for money in the finance system has dropped meaning the deals just are not there. I know from experience that my present mortgage has fallen from 350 p/month to under £100, with the only deals now available being in the region of £199. So the moves the BOE have made have not really helped me at all… As mentioned these mortgage rate cuts have taken money out of the system meaning the deals are not there and fewer people than ever can get a mortgage.

Economic consultancy Lombard Street Research are predicting an end to the housing slump by Christmas time. The average fall has been around 20% with some regions hit much harder than others, areas such as the North of England and the over-inflated markets like London have been hit hardest with Scotland and Northern Ireland relatively unaffected. The fall has been arrested at around 10% to 20% and sellers have accepted this as part of the free market and sales have now started to increase, with house prices bottoming out.

This will be good news for everybody, and could be an indicator that the credit crunch wont neccessarily develop into a 70s type recession taking us well into the next decade.

The affordability of property as compared to earings and cost of living is now at 1990 levels, meaning more first time buyers and low wage earners can now get on the ladder. This will be another reason for the prices to stabilse in the months to come

Lombard Street Research predict that property prices will not need the 7 years recovery time that were required after the ‘boom and bust’ of the last decade.

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There has been somewhat of a recovery in the market over the last month, prices have been stablised in some areas and are starting a slow rise in others. As you can see from House Price Spy prices in certain areas of England including Merseyside, Kent, Reading and Nottinghamshire have seen an increase over the last month. This is in addition to a rise overall for Scotland.

While some areas keep falling the falls are now more gradual and many areas are stable. There is more money being lent out to private borrowers, although this is misleading after falling to the lowest amount recorded in recent years. More importantly there is a clear note of optimism in the market with regular folks venturing back into the market with money to spend.

I notice that after all the noises the government were making regarding new housing much of this funding will now be needed elsewhere, with so much real estate on the market and the market just recovering I am not too surprised.

After all the doom and gloom, tightening of belts and jobs lost hopefully we have seen the start of the end and looking forward to 2010 with renewed optimism.

You can keep in touch with what is happening in your local area through House Price Spy, we will even email you updates!!

The data available from House Price Spy is sourced from various official bodies including The Royal Mail, The Land Registry and Registers of Scotland. Only a very select number of companies are allowed to reproduce and use this data, the data is strictly regulated by the bodies involved with correction and updates every month. The other companies include banks, estate agents, building societies and property professionals.

We reproduce the data we receive as we get it, we ask that you address any inaccuracies or omissions to the bodies involved as we can only make changes given to us through The Land Registry and Registers of Scotland channels. We do get regular updates from these bodies each month and implement them to ensure we have the most accurate dataset available.

There is a vast amount of work that goes into bringing you this data, keeping it accurate and helping you make the most of this great free service. As you can appreciate having millions of pages of results means a vast logistical headache, we have 10 years of design experience and use every bit of this to bring House Price Spy to the public. in addition the extra statistics and reports are a unique feature of the site and are unrivalled in this sector, you wont find anything quite like this anywhere else!

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